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标题:Tourism, terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models
时间:2019-08-14 17:40:40
DOI:10.1016/j.tourman.2018.09.002
大小:1347 kb
页数:16 PAGES
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目录:
  • Tourism, terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models
    • Introduction
    • Literature review
      • Transitory or permanent shock on tourism demand
      • Persistence property of shocks on tourism demand
      • Persistence of shocks and seasonality issues
    • The tourism sector in Tunisia
    • Data and preliminary analysis
      • Data description
      • Data generating process (DGP) of the tourist arrivals
        • Unit root tests with breaks
        • The long memory property
        • Shimotsu (2006a) test of true versus long-range dependence
    • A markov switching model for the number of tourist arrivals
      • The Markov switching autoregressive model
      • Markov switching model selection and interpretations
        • Model selection
        • Interpretation of the 3S-MS-AR(1) model
      • Probabilities smoothing and regime classification analysis
      • Breaks dates – political and/or terrorist attacks
      • Results robustness checking
        • Robustness to deseasonalization method
        • Robustness to second proxy of tourism activity
    • Conclusion
    • Policy implications
      • Security policy
      • Marketing policy
      • Monetary policy
      • Budgetary policy
    • mk:H1_29
      • Unit root tests with structural breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009a).
      • Shimotsu (2006a) test of true versus long range dependence
    • Author contribution
    • References

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